Feb
1
2012
Both the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar dropped in the forex market today, mainly due to negative figures coming out of the U.S. Lately, the United States has been performing very well, producing positive numbers and consistent growth. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, along other risky assets, have enjoyed rally after rally. However, the rally did stop today, making several currencies and stocks fall. The rate of employment dropped from the previous month in the U.S., suggesting that the growth rate might decrease 2012.
The Australian dollar depreciated 40 basis points to the dollar and 0.5 percent to the yen. The U.S. dollar advanced 60 basis points against the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen managed to gain 0.1 percent more than the dollar.
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Jan
30
2012
The South African rand depreciated from a 12-week high in today’s forex market. The main reason behind the fall was the recent drop in commodity prices, causing demand for the rand to decrease as the South African economy relies on its raw material exports.
South Africa was not the only country affected, almost all currencies of emerging markets depreciated due to the fall in commodity prices. A lot of these countries rely on the growth of other countries, as their main income is raw material exports.
The South African rand depreciated 150 basis points, or 1.5 percent, against the U.S. dollar today. The net appreciation since last week is currently 1 percent.
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Jan
19
2012
The Russian ruble continued to gain in the forex market today. The Russian currency has been riding the wave of positive news and global rallies in stocks and commodity prices, leading to a gain against the U.S. dollar for four consecutive days.
The Russian ruble managed to appreciate 30 basis points against the U.S. dollar today, making the total appreciation well over a full percentage in the past four days. The ruble was pretty stable against the euro, as the European currency has been rallying as well.
The main factor behind today’s gains is once again increasing oil prices, which represents a solid chunk of Russia’s export revenues. As the price of crude oil increases, so does demand for the Russian ruble.
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Jan
17
2012
The price of oil fell to the lowest point the past 21 days as the decision to implement sanctions against Iran was delayed for a couple of months. The main factor behind this move by the U.S. is to allow nations importing oil from Iran to find other business partners. As an embargo is implemented, countries can no longer trade with Iran.
The price of oil fell 40 basis points as soon as the news hit financial markets. The price of oil initially rose when talks about an embargo first began. As one supplier no longer would be available, the price of oil had appreciated. Because that scenario will not be taking place in the coming months, the price is shifting back to its original level.
The total weekly loss for oil is now 280 basis points, which means that it still is ahead around 8 percent compared to the same time 2011. Oil is traded in U.S. dollar, which appreciated today in the forex market.
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Jan
10
2012
The South African rand appreciated against the U.S. dollar in the forex market today. This is the first gain the South African currency has experienced against the U.S. dollar in almost a week. The main reason behind the appreciation is the recent increases of commodity prices, mainly metals. Another report that boosted the rand was an announcement made by China, which led investors to believe that the country might import more raw materials than it currently does.
The South African rand gained 8 basis points against the euro and 130 basis points against the U.S. dollar. Several other emerging currencies gained as well as a lot of the new economies rely on raw material exports to achieve economic growth.
However, emerging markets were not the only currencies benefiting from higher commodities, other currencies closely linked to global growth gained as well. The main winners amongst the major currencies were the Australian and New Zealand dollars, both appreciating around 100 basis points against the U.S. dollar.
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Jan
3
2012
A lot of countries are set to pay bonds maturing in the middle of 2012, which might be a bit problematic in the current economic environment. Analysts predict that investors will demand higher yields as a lot of countries have trouble with its finances and budget deficits, which will cause higher borrowing costs for these countries. This year alone, governments are set to pay over 7.5 trillion U.S. dollars.
Governments are forced to compete over buyers, as there currently is an overall large skepticism about government bonds. A lot of countries have unstable balance sheets, which might mean that they will be forced to offer higher yields to be able to collect necessary funds to maintain their economies.
There are some concerns that the European debt crisis is far from behind us due to rising borrowing costs for a lot of European countries. Estimates are that the cost of borrowed capital for the most affected countries in Europe will rise by 40 percent.
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Dec
22
2011
New Zealand has shown some good numbers lately, performing better than economists hade estimated for the fourth quarter. Although the news is a good sign for the country’s economy, the government announced that it might have been exceedingly good figures due to a hosted global sports championship that lead to an unusual boost in tourism and spending. Therefore, New Zealand’s Central Bank announced that they would not raise interest rates as the current figures reported by the statistical agencies in the country might be skewed. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar appreciated in the forex due to the announced news. The country’s Gross Domestic Product grew 0.7 percent more than it did the same time last year, which was an unexpected level of growth.
Although the reported figures gave rise to an appreciation of the New Zealand dollar, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later reported that business and consumer confidence has been decreasing due to the European debt crisis still hurting the country’s exports and domestic demand. As a result, the New Zealand currency fell further than its initial gain, making the total depreciation 0.35 percent against the U.S. dollar.
New Zealand has had a rough year in the forex market, depreciating a total of 13 percent in the last 18 weeks.
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Dec
20
2011
As earlier reported this month, the United Kingdom chose to not participate in the European actions against the current debt crisis, mainly setting up a crisis fund worth 195 billion U.S. dollars. David Cameron, the country’s Prime Minister, said that it is not the correct move for the U.K., as they do not share the euro currency. The U.K. will announce their contribution to the current crisis early next year.
Although Germany has both co-crafted the proposal and invested money in it, they have been reluctant to raise the upper limit of the fund to reach a 500 billion level instead of the current 195 billion. There are some political forces that believe that the solution does not lie in investing more money, but rather changing policies for a future resolution of the crisis.
Meanwhile, some analysts are saying that the current crisis fund actually is too small and that countries need to invest far more money in the European region in order to properly deal with the crisis.
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Dec
15
2011
Investors believed that the European debt crisis might have slowed down, which boosted demand for riskier assets, such as stocks and bonds. Safer assets, mainly the U.S. dollar, witnessed depreciation.
The U.S. currency fell against most major currencies, as it is currently considered a safe heaven in a forex market experiencing much turmoil. Figures coming out of Europe showed that the economy has ben dampening at a level slower than most analysts predicted, which made the euro rise against mainly the U.S. dollar.
Apart from the euro, the Swiss franc, Australian dollar and Brazilian real gained against the U.S. dollar. Figures from the U.S. also showed signs of a healthier economy, which also sparked demand for riskier assets.
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Dec
13
2011
Chile has experienced a strong and growing economy for many consecutive months and expectations are that the government will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged during its next policy meeting.
Earlier this year, interest rates were increased by 2 percentages as a result of fast and dynamic growth. Although the threat of a widespread European debt crisis remains, the country is yet to see a decrease in demand and consumer spending.
The last time the Chilean government decreased interest rates was around 2 and a half years ago, during a month the country’s economy decreased for the first time in a decade. Since the cut, growth has been looking solid and strong. The main reasons investors are betting that interest will not be cut are a strong economic state not crippled by the situation in Europe and that threat of an increasing inflation rate.
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